CRY vs MCI
Crystal Palace (home) vs Manchester City · model confidence 82%
Match Outcome
CRY win 28.1% fair 3.56
Draw 23.4% fair 4.27
MCI win 48.5% fair 2.06
Expected Goals
CRY
1.21
—
1.77
MCI
| Over 2.5 goals | 57.3% | fair 1.75 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 42.7% | fair 2.34 |
| Both teams to score | 58.3% | fair 1.72 |
Most Likely Scores
| CRY 1-1 MCI | 10.9% | |
| CRY 1-2 MCI | 9.6% | |
| CRY 0-1 MCI | 9.0% | |
| CRY 0-2 MCI | 7.9% | |
| CRY 2-1 MCI | 6.6% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.1 | 9.0 | 7.9 | 4.7 | 2.1 | 1.0 |
| 1 | 6.1 | 10.9 | 9.6 | 5.7 | 2.5 | 1.2 |
| 2 | 3.7 | 6.6 | 5.8 | 3.4 | 1.5 | 0.7 |
| 3 | 1.5 | 2.7 | 2.4 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.8 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5+ | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Rows: CRY goals · Columns: MCI goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).