LEE vs BRE
Leeds United (home) vs Brentford · model confidence 74%
Match Outcome
LEE win 38.5% fair 2.60
Draw 24.1% fair 4.14
BRE win 37.3% fair 2.68
Probabilities are shrunk toward the league prior because rating confidence is medium (limited sample / squad uncertainty). Raw model: 37.4% / 24.2% / 38.4%.
Expected Goals
LEE
1.50
—
1.53
BRE
| Over 2.5 goals | 58.3% | fair 1.72 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 41.7% | fair 2.40 |
| Both teams to score | 60.8% | fair 1.64 |
Most Likely Scores
| LEE 1-1 BRE | 11.1% | |
| LEE 1-2 BRE | 8.5% | |
| LEE 2-1 BRE | 8.3% | |
| LEE 0-1 BRE | 7.4% | |
| LEE 1-0 BRE | 7.3% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.8 | 7.4 | 5.6 | 2.9 | 1.1 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 7.3 | 11.1 | 8.5 | 4.3 | 1.6 | 0.7 |
| 2 | 5.5 | 8.3 | 6.4 | 3.2 | 1.2 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 2.7 | 4.2 | 3.2 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.6 | 1.2 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5+ | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Rows: LEE goals · Columns: BRE goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).