MUN vs IPS
Manchester United (home) vs Ipswich Town · model confidence 64%
Match Outcome
MUN win 57.5% fair 1.74
Draw 21.2% fair 4.71
IPS win 21.3% fair 4.70
Probabilities are shrunk toward the league prior because rating confidence is low (limited sample / squad uncertainty). Raw model: 60.8% / 20.5% / 18.7%.
Expected Goals
MUN
2.10
—
1.08
IPS
| Over 2.5 goals | 61.4% | fair 1.63 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 38.6% | fair 2.59 |
| Both teams to score | 57.8% | fair 1.73 |
Most Likely Scores
| MUN 2-1 IPS | 9.9% | |
| MUN 1-1 IPS | 9.5% | |
| MUN 2-0 IPS | 9.2% | |
| MUN 1-0 IPS | 8.8% | |
| MUN 3-1 IPS | 6.9% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.2 | 4.5 | 2.4 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 8.8 | 9.5 | 5.1 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.2 | 9.9 | 5.3 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.4 | 6.9 | 3.7 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 3.4 | 3.6 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 2.1 | 2.3 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Rows: MUN goals · Columns: IPS goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).