SUN vs FUL
Sunderland (home) vs Fulham · model confidence 74%
Match Outcome
SUN win 36.7% fair 2.73
Draw 24.4% fair 4.10
FUL win 38.9% fair 2.57
Probabilities are shrunk toward the league prior because rating confidence is medium (limited sample / squad uncertainty). Raw model: 35.2% / 24.5% / 40.3%.
Expected Goals
SUN
1.42
—
1.53
FUL
| Over 2.5 goals | 56.6% | fair 1.77 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 43.4% | fair 2.30 |
| Both teams to score | 59.4% | fair 1.68 |
Most Likely Scores
| SUN 1-1 FUL | 11.4% | |
| SUN 1-2 FUL | 8.7% | |
| SUN 2-1 FUL | 8.1% | |
| SUN 0-1 FUL | 8.0% | |
| SUN 1-0 FUL | 7.4% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.2 | 8.0 | 6.1 | 3.1 | 1.2 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 7.4 | 11.4 | 8.7 | 4.5 | 1.7 | 0.7 |
| 2 | 5.3 | 8.1 | 6.2 | 3.2 | 1.2 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 2.5 | 3.8 | 2.9 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.4 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5+ | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Rows: SUN goals · Columns: FUL goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).