HUL vs AVL
Hull City (home) vs Aston Villa · model confidence 68%
Match Outcome
HUL win 26.9% fair 3.72
Draw 22.5% fair 4.44
AVL win 50.6% fair 1.98
Probabilities are shrunk toward the league prior because rating confidence is medium (limited sample / squad uncertainty). Raw model: 22.7% / 22.2% / 55.1%.
Expected Goals
HUL
1.16
—
1.92
AVL
| Over 2.5 goals | 59.4% | fair 1.68 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 40.6% | fair 2.46 |
| Both teams to score | 58.5% | fair 1.71 |
Most Likely Scores
| HUL 1-1 AVL | 10.2% | |
| HUL 1-2 AVL | 9.8% | |
| HUL 0-1 AVL | 8.9% | |
| HUL 0-2 AVL | 8.5% | |
| HUL 1-3 AVL | 6.3% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.6 | 8.9 | 8.5 | 5.4 | 2.6 | 1.4 |
| 1 | 5.3 | 10.2 | 9.8 | 6.3 | 3.0 | 1.7 |
| 2 | 3.1 | 5.9 | 5.7 | 3.6 | 1.7 | 1.0 |
| 3 | 1.2 | 2.3 | 2.2 | 1.4 | 0.7 | 0.4 |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.7 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5+ | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Rows: HUL goals · Columns: AVL goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).