ARS vs CHE
Arsenal (home) vs Chelsea · model confidence 84%
Match Outcome
ARS win 61.3% fair 1.63
Draw 20.9% fair 4.79
CHE win 17.9% fair 5.60
Expected Goals
ARS
2.05
—
0.94
CHE
| Over 2.5 goals | 57.4% | fair 1.74 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 42.6% | fair 2.35 |
| Both teams to score | 53.1% | fair 1.88 |
Most Likely Scores
| ARS 2-0 CHE | 10.6% | |
| ARS 1-0 CHE | 10.3% | |
| ARS 2-1 CHE | 9.9% | |
| ARS 1-1 CHE | 9.7% | |
| ARS 3-0 CHE | 7.2% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.0 | 4.7 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 1 | 10.3 | 9.7 | 4.6 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.6 | 9.9 | 4.7 | 1.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 7.2 | 6.8 | 3.2 | 1.0 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 3.7 | 3.5 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 2.2 | 2.1 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Rows: ARS goals · Columns: CHE goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).