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EPL · 2026-27 Serie A · 2026-27 La Liga · 2026-27 Bundesliga · 2026-27 Ligue 1 · 2026-27

ARS vs CHE

Arsenal (home) vs Chelsea · model confidence 84%

Match Outcome

ARS win 61.3% fair 1.63
Draw 20.9% fair 4.79
CHE win 17.9% fair 5.60

Expected Goals

ARS 2.05 0.94 CHE
Over 2.5 goals57.4%fair 1.74
Under 2.5 goals42.6%fair 2.35
Both teams to score53.1%fair 1.88

Most Likely Scores

ARS 2-0 CHE10.6%
ARS 1-0 CHE10.3%
ARS 2-1 CHE9.9%
ARS 1-1 CHE9.7%
ARS 3-0 CHE7.2%

Scoreline Matrix

012345+
0 5.0 4.7 2.2 0.7 0.2 0.0
1 10.3 9.7 4.6 1.4 0.3 0.1
2 10.6 9.9 4.7 1.5 0.3 0.1
3 7.2 6.8 3.2 1.0 0.2 0.1
4 3.7 3.5 1.6 0.5 0.1 0.0
5+ 2.2 2.1 1.0 0.3 0.1 0.0

Rows: ARS goals · Columns: CHE goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).

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