ARS vs CHE
Arsenal (home) vs Chelsea · model confidence 84% · pregame locked (09-06 · FT 2-1 ) · lineup adj ×1.08 / ×1.10
Probabilities below are the pregame model (ratings as they stood before kickoff) — the same numbers used on Fixtures and Over 2.5 calibration. They are not recomputed with today’s live ratings.
Match Outcome
ARS win 62.3% fair 1.61
Draw 19.7% fair 5.08
CHE win 18.1% fair 5.54
Expected Goals
ARS
2.24
—
1.06
CHE
Starting-XI ADJ applied to expected goals (not a permanent rating change): ARS ×1.076 (matched 10), CHE ×1.100 (matched 11). Clamp 0.90–1.10, α=0.5.
| Over 2.5 goals | 64.0% | fair 1.56 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 36.0% | fair 2.78 |
| Both teams to score | 58.3% | fair 1.71 |
Most Likely Scores
| ARS 2-1 CHE | 9.8% | |
| ARS 2-0 CHE | 9.3% | |
| ARS 1-1 CHE | 8.8% | |
| ARS 1-0 CHE | 8.3% | |
| ARS 3-1 CHE | 7.3% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.7 | 3.9 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 1 | 8.3 | 8.8 | 4.6 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.3 | 9.8 | 5.2 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.9 | 7.3 | 3.9 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 3.9 | 4.1 | 2.2 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5+ | 2.7 | 2.8 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Rows: ARS goals · Columns: CHE goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).