IPS vs LIV
Ipswich Town (home) vs Liverpool · model confidence 71%
Match Outcome
IPS win 19.5% fair 5.12
Draw 19.1% fair 5.24
LIV win 61.4% fair 1.63
Probabilities are shrunk toward the league prior because rating confidence is medium (limited sample / squad uncertainty). Raw model: 14.2% / 18.1% / 67.7%.
Expected Goals
IPS
0.98
—
2.34
LIV
| Over 2.5 goals | 64.4% | fair 1.55 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 35.6% | fair 2.81 |
| Both teams to score | 56.4% | fair 1.77 |
Most Likely Scores
| IPS 0-2 LIV | 9.9% | |
| IPS 1-2 LIV | 9.7% | |
| IPS 0-1 LIV | 8.5% | |
| IPS 1-1 LIV | 8.3% | |
| IPS 0-3 LIV | 7.7% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.6 | 8.5 | 9.9 | 7.7 | 4.5 | 3.3 |
| 1 | 3.5 | 8.3 | 9.7 | 7.6 | 4.4 | 3.3 |
| 2 | 1.7 | 4.1 | 4.7 | 3.7 | 2.2 | 1.6 |
| 3 | 0.6 | 1.3 | 1.5 | 1.2 | 0.7 | 0.5 |
| 4 | 0.1 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5+ | 0.0 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Rows: IPS goals · Columns: LIV goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).