COV vs BHA
Coventry City (home) vs Brighton & Hove Albion · model confidence 67%
Match Outcome
COV win 25.5% fair 3.92
Draw 21.4% fair 4.67
BHA win 53.1% fair 1.88
Probabilities are shrunk toward the league prior because rating confidence is medium (limited sample / squad uncertainty). Raw model: 20.8% / 20.8% / 58.4%.
Expected Goals
COV
1.17
—
2.09
BHA
| Over 2.5 goals | 63.3% | fair 1.58 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 36.7% | fair 2.72 |
| Both teams to score | 60.5% | fair 1.65 |
Most Likely Scores
| COV 1-2 BHA | 9.8% | |
| COV 1-1 BHA | 9.4% | |
| COV 0-2 BHA | 8.4% | |
| COV 0-1 BHA | 8.0% | |
| COV 1-3 BHA | 6.8% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.8 | 8.0 | 8.4 | 5.8 | 3.0 | 1.9 |
| 1 | 4.5 | 9.4 | 9.8 | 6.8 | 3.6 | 2.2 |
| 2 | 2.6 | 5.5 | 5.8 | 4.0 | 2.1 | 1.3 |
| 3 | 1.0 | 2.2 | 2.3 | 1.6 | 0.8 | 0.5 |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.6 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5+ | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Rows: COV goals · Columns: BHA goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).