MUN vs MCI
Manchester United (home) vs Manchester City · model confidence 80% · pregame locked (09-13 · FT 0-1 ) · lineup adj ×1.10 / ×0.97
Probabilities below are the pregame model (ratings as they stood before kickoff) — the same numbers used on Fixtures and Over 2.5 calibration. They are not recomputed with today’s live ratings.
Match Outcome
MUN win 32.4% fair 3.08
Draw 22.2% fair 4.51
MCI win 45.4% fair 2.20
Expected Goals
MUN
1.54
—
1.94
MCI
Starting-XI ADJ applied to expected goals (not a permanent rating change): MUN ×1.100 (matched 11), MCI ×0.967 (matched 10). Clamp 0.90–1.10, α=0.5.
| Over 2.5 goals | 67.5% | fair 1.48 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 32.5% | fair 3.08 |
| Both teams to score | 67.2% | fair 1.49 |
Most Likely Scores
| MUN 1-1 MCI | 9.2% | |
| MUN 1-2 MCI | 8.9% | |
| MUN 2-1 MCI | 7.1% | |
| MUN 2-2 MCI | 6.9% | |
| MUN 0-1 MCI | 6.0% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.1 | 6.0 | 5.8 | 3.8 | 1.8 | 1.0 |
| 1 | 4.7 | 9.2 | 8.9 | 5.8 | 2.8 | 1.6 |
| 2 | 3.6 | 7.1 | 6.9 | 4.4 | 2.2 | 1.2 |
| 3 | 1.9 | 3.6 | 3.5 | 2.3 | 1.1 | 0.6 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 1.4 | 1.4 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.2 |
| 5+ | 0.3 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
Rows: MUN goals · Columns: MCI goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).