MUN vs MCI
Manchester United (home) vs Manchester City · model confidence 79%
Match Outcome
MUN win 28.5% fair 3.51
Draw 22.3% fair 4.48
MCI win 49.2% fair 2.03
Probabilities are shrunk toward the league prior because rating confidence is medium (limited sample / squad uncertainty). Raw model: 26.1% / 22.1% / 51.8%.
Expected Goals
MUN
1.33
—
1.94
MCI
| Over 2.5 goals | 63.4% | fair 1.58 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 36.6% | fair 2.73 |
| Both teams to score | 62.9% | fair 1.59 |
Most Likely Scores
| MUN 1-1 MCI | 9.8% | |
| MUN 1-2 MCI | 9.5% | |
| MUN 0-1 MCI | 7.4% | |
| MUN 0-2 MCI | 7.2% | |
| MUN 2-1 MCI | 6.5% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.8 | 7.4 | 7.2 | 4.6 | 2.3 | 1.3 |
| 1 | 5.1 | 9.8 | 9.5 | 6.2 | 3.0 | 1.7 |
| 2 | 3.4 | 6.5 | 6.3 | 4.1 | 2.0 | 1.1 |
| 3 | 1.5 | 2.9 | 2.8 | 1.8 | 0.9 | 0.5 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 1.0 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.2 |
| 5+ | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
Rows: MUN goals · Columns: MCI goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).