CRY vs IPS
Crystal Palace (home) vs Ipswich Town · model confidence 68%
Match Outcome
CRY win 56.5% fair 1.77
Draw 22.3% fair 4.48
IPS win 21.1% fair 4.73
Probabilities are shrunk toward the league prior because rating confidence is medium (limited sample / squad uncertainty). Raw model: 59.2% / 21.9% / 18.9%.
Expected Goals
CRY
1.92
—
0.98
IPS
| Over 2.5 goals | 55.3% | fair 1.81 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 44.7% | fair 2.24 |
| Both teams to score | 53.3% | fair 1.88 |
Most Likely Scores
| CRY 1-0 IPS | 10.6% | |
| CRY 1-1 IPS | 10.4% | |
| CRY 2-0 IPS | 10.1% | |
| CRY 2-1 IPS | 9.9% | |
| CRY 3-0 IPS | 6.5% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.5 | 5.4 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 1 | 10.6 | 10.4 | 5.1 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.1 | 9.9 | 4.9 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.5 | 6.3 | 3.1 | 1.0 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 3.1 | 3.0 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 1.7 | 1.7 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Rows: CRY goals · Columns: IPS goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).