LIV vs FUL
Liverpool (home) vs Fulham · model confidence 82% · pregame locked (09-12 · FT 0-0 ) · lineup adj ×0.90 / ×0.90
Probabilities below are the pregame model (ratings as they stood before kickoff) — the same numbers used on Fixtures and Over 2.5 calibration. They are not recomputed with today’s live ratings.
Match Outcome
LIV win 64.6% fair 1.55
Draw 19.7% fair 5.08
FUL win 15.7% fair 6.35
Expected Goals
LIV
2.16
—
0.88
FUL
Starting-XI ADJ applied to expected goals (not a permanent rating change): LIV ×0.900 (matched 11), FUL ×0.900 (matched 10). Clamp 0.90–1.10, α=0.5.
| Over 2.5 goals | 58.6% | fair 1.71 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 41.4% | fair 2.41 |
| Both teams to score | 51.7% | fair 1.94 |
Most Likely Scores
| LIV 2-0 FUL | 11.2% | |
| LIV 1-0 FUL | 10.4% | |
| LIV 2-1 FUL | 9.8% | |
| LIV 1-1 FUL | 9.1% | |
| LIV 3-0 FUL | 8.1% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.8 | 4.2 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 1 | 10.4 | 9.1 | 4.0 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 11.2 | 9.8 | 4.3 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 8.1 | 7.1 | 3.1 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 4 | 4.4 | 3.8 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 2.9 | 2.5 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Rows: LIV goals · Columns: FUL goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).