SUN vs ARS
Sunderland (home) vs Arsenal · model confidence 80% · pregame locked (09-12 · FT 0-2 ) · lineup adj ×0.90 / ×1.08
Probabilities below are the pregame model (ratings as they stood before kickoff) — the same numbers used on Fixtures and Over 2.5 calibration. They are not recomputed with today’s live ratings.
Match Outcome
SUN win 13.4% fair 7.46
Draw 17.8% fair 5.60
ARS win 68.8% fair 1.45
Expected Goals
SUN
0.66
—
2.25
ARS
Starting-XI ADJ applied to expected goals (not a permanent rating change): SUN ×0.900 (matched 10), ARS ×1.076 (matched 10). Clamp 0.90–1.10, α=0.5.
| Over 2.5 goals | 55.7% | fair 1.80 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 44.3% | fair 2.25 |
| Both teams to score | 43.2% | fair 2.32 |
Most Likely Scores
| SUN 0-2 ARS | 13.8% | |
| SUN 0-1 ARS | 12.3% | |
| SUN 0-3 ARS | 10.4% | |
| SUN 1-2 ARS | 9.1% | |
| SUN 1-1 ARS | 8.1% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.4 | 12.3 | 13.8 | 10.4 | 5.8 | 4.1 |
| 1 | 3.6 | 8.1 | 9.1 | 6.8 | 3.8 | 2.7 |
| 2 | 1.2 | 2.7 | 3.0 | 2.2 | 1.3 | 0.9 |
| 3 | 0.3 | 0.6 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.0 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Rows: SUN goals · Columns: ARS goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).