SUN vs ARS
Sunderland (home) vs Arsenal · model confidence 79%
Match Outcome
SUN win 15.1% fair 6.62
Draw 18.4% fair 5.44
ARS win 66.5% fair 1.50
Probabilities are shrunk toward the league prior because rating confidence is medium (limited sample / squad uncertainty). Raw model: 10.9% / 17.6% / 71.4%.
Expected Goals
SUN
0.76
—
2.26
ARS
| Over 2.5 goals | 58.1% | fair 1.72 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 41.9% | fair 2.38 |
| Both teams to score | 47.5% | fair 2.10 |
Most Likely Scores
| SUN 0-2 ARS | 12.5% | |
| SUN 0-1 ARS | 11.1% | |
| SUN 1-2 ARS | 9.5% | |
| SUN 0-3 ARS | 9.4% | |
| SUN 1-1 ARS | 8.4% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.9 | 11.1 | 12.5 | 9.4 | 5.3 | 3.7 |
| 1 | 3.7 | 8.4 | 9.5 | 7.1 | 4.0 | 2.8 |
| 2 | 1.4 | 3.2 | 3.6 | 2.7 | 1.5 | 1.1 |
| 3 | 0.4 | 0.8 | 0.9 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
| 5+ | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Rows: SUN goals · Columns: ARS goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).