BOU vs BRE
AFC Bournemouth (home) vs Brentford · model confidence 77%
Match Outcome
BOU win 43.1% fair 2.32
Draw 23.3% fair 4.30
BRE win 33.7% fair 2.97
Probabilities are shrunk toward the league prior because rating confidence is medium (limited sample / squad uncertainty). Raw model: 42.8% / 23.2% / 34.1%.
Expected Goals
BOU
1.72
—
1.52
BRE
| Over 2.5 goals | 62.8% | fair 1.59 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 37.2% | fair 2.68 |
| Both teams to score | 64.1% | fair 1.56 |
Most Likely Scores
| BOU 1-1 BRE | 10.3% | |
| BOU 2-1 BRE | 8.8% | |
| BOU 1-2 BRE | 7.8% | |
| BOU 1-0 BRE | 6.8% | |
| BOU 2-2 BRE | 6.7% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.9 | 6.0 | 4.5 | 2.3 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 6.8 | 10.3 | 7.8 | 3.9 | 1.5 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 5.8 | 8.8 | 6.7 | 3.4 | 1.3 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 3.3 | 5.1 | 3.8 | 1.9 | 0.7 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 1.4 | 2.2 | 1.6 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5+ | 0.7 | 1.0 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
Rows: BOU goals · Columns: BRE goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).