TOT vs EVE
Tottenham Hotspur (home) vs Everton · model confidence 75%
Match Outcome
TOT win 48.6% fair 2.06
Draw 23.2% fair 4.31
EVE win 28.2% fair 3.54
Probabilities are shrunk toward the league prior because rating confidence is medium (limited sample / squad uncertainty). Raw model: 49.2% / 23.0% / 27.8%.
Expected Goals
TOT
1.80
—
1.30
EVE
| Over 2.5 goals | 60.1% | fair 1.66 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 39.9% | fair 2.51 |
| Both teams to score | 60.9% | fair 1.64 |
Most Likely Scores
| TOT 1-1 EVE | 10.5% | |
| TOT 2-1 EVE | 9.5% | |
| TOT 1-0 EVE | 8.1% | |
| TOT 2-0 EVE | 7.3% | |
| TOT 1-2 EVE | 6.9% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.5 | 5.8 | 3.8 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 8.1 | 10.5 | 6.9 | 3.0 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 7.3 | 9.5 | 6.2 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 4.4 | 5.7 | 3.7 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 2.0 | 2.6 | 1.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5+ | 1.0 | 1.3 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Rows: TOT goals · Columns: EVE goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).