AVL vs NFO
Aston Villa (home) vs Nottingham Forest · model confidence 78%
Match Outcome
AVL win 49.7% fair 2.01
Draw 24.0% fair 4.17
NFO win 26.3% fair 3.80
Probabilities are shrunk toward the league prior because rating confidence is medium (limited sample / squad uncertainty). Raw model: 50.4% / 24.0% / 25.6%.
Expected Goals
AVL
1.70
—
1.14
NFO
| Over 2.5 goals | 54.0% | fair 1.85 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 46.0% | fair 2.17 |
| Both teams to score | 55.6% | fair 1.80 |
Most Likely Scores
| AVL 1-1 NFO | 11.3% | |
| AVL 1-0 NFO | 9.9% | |
| AVL 2-1 NFO | 9.6% | |
| AVL 2-0 NFO | 8.4% | |
| AVL 0-1 NFO | 6.7% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.8 | 6.7 | 3.8 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.9 | 11.3 | 6.5 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.4 | 9.6 | 5.5 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.8 | 5.4 | 3.1 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.0 | 2.3 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 0.9 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Rows: AVL goals · Columns: NFO goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).