CHE vs HUL
Chelsea (home) vs Hull City · model confidence 68%
Match Outcome
CHE win 68.7% fair 1.45
Draw 17.1% fair 5.86
HUL win 14.2% fair 7.05
Probabilities are shrunk toward the league prior because rating confidence is medium (limited sample / squad uncertainty). Raw model: 74.2% / 15.5% / 10.3%.
Expected Goals
CHE
2.57
—
0.86
HUL
| Over 2.5 goals | 66.7% | fair 1.50 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 33.3% | fair 3.00 |
| Both teams to score | 53.3% | fair 1.87 |
Most Likely Scores
| CHE 2-0 HUL | 10.7% | |
| CHE 2-1 HUL | 9.2% | |
| CHE 3-0 HUL | 9.2% | |
| CHE 1-0 HUL | 8.3% | |
| CHE 3-1 HUL | 7.9% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.2 | 2.8 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 1 | 8.3 | 7.1 | 3.1 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 2 | 10.7 | 9.2 | 4.0 | 1.1 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 3 | 9.2 | 7.9 | 3.4 | 1.0 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 4 | 5.9 | 5.1 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 5.0 | 4.3 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Rows: CHE goals · Columns: HUL goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).