LEE vs NEW
Leeds United (home) vs Newcastle United · model confidence 75%
Match Outcome
LEE win 30.5% fair 3.28
Draw 23.4% fair 4.28
NEW win 46.1% fair 2.17
Probabilities are shrunk toward the league prior because rating confidence is medium (limited sample / squad uncertainty). Raw model: 28.1% / 23.3% / 48.7%.
Expected Goals
LEE
1.30
—
1.77
NEW
| Over 2.5 goals | 59.2% | fair 1.69 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 40.8% | fair 2.45 |
| Both teams to score | 60.3% | fair 1.66 |
Most Likely Scores
| LEE 1-1 NEW | 10.7% | |
| LEE 1-2 NEW | 9.5% | |
| LEE 0-1 NEW | 8.2% | |
| LEE 0-2 NEW | 7.3% | |
| LEE 2-1 NEW | 6.9% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.7 | 8.2 | 7.3 | 4.3 | 1.9 | 0.9 |
| 1 | 6.0 | 10.7 | 9.5 | 5.6 | 2.5 | 1.2 |
| 2 | 3.9 | 6.9 | 6.1 | 3.6 | 1.6 | 0.8 |
| 3 | 1.7 | 3.0 | 2.6 | 1.6 | 0.7 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 1.0 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5+ | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Rows: LEE goals · Columns: NEW goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).