AVL vs BRE
Aston Villa (home) vs Brentford · model confidence 81% · pregame locked (10-10 · FT 2-2 ) · lineup adj ×0.90 / ×1.06
Probabilities below are the pregame model (ratings as they stood before kickoff) — the same numbers used on Fixtures and Over 2.5 calibration. They are not recomputed with today’s live ratings.
Match Outcome
AVL win 39.7% fair 2.52
Draw 24.3% fair 4.11
BRE win 36.0% fair 2.78
Expected Goals
AVL
1.52
—
1.47
BRE
Starting-XI ADJ applied to expected goals (not a permanent rating change): AVL ×0.900 (matched 6), BRE ×1.056 (matched 10). Clamp 0.90–1.10, α=0.5.
| Over 2.5 goals | 57.4% | fair 1.74 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 42.6% | fair 2.35 |
| Both teams to score | 60.1% | fair 1.66 |
Most Likely Scores
| AVL 1-1 BRE | 11.2% | |
| AVL 2-1 BRE | 8.6% | |
| AVL 1-2 BRE | 8.2% | |
| AVL 1-0 BRE | 7.7% | |
| AVL 0-1 BRE | 7.4% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.0 | 7.4 | 5.4 | 2.6 | 1.0 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 7.7 | 11.2 | 8.2 | 4.0 | 1.5 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 5.8 | 8.6 | 6.3 | 3.1 | 1.1 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 3.0 | 4.3 | 3.2 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.7 | 1.2 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5+ | 0.5 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Rows: AVL goals · Columns: BRE goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).