AVL vs BRE
Aston Villa (home) vs Brentford · model confidence 79%
Match Outcome
AVL win 47.9% fair 2.09
Draw 22.8% fair 4.38
BRE win 29.3% fair 3.41
Probabilities are shrunk toward the league prior because rating confidence is medium (limited sample / squad uncertainty). Raw model: 48.3% / 22.7% / 29.1%.
Expected Goals
AVL
1.85
—
1.39
BRE
| Over 2.5 goals | 62.9% | fair 1.59 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 37.1% | fair 2.69 |
| Both teams to score | 63.3% | fair 1.58 |
Most Likely Scores
| AVL 1-1 BRE | 10.1% | |
| AVL 2-1 BRE | 9.3% | |
| AVL 1-0 BRE | 7.2% | |
| AVL 1-2 BRE | 7.0% | |
| AVL 2-0 BRE | 6.7% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.9 | 5.5 | 3.8 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 7.2 | 10.1 | 7.0 | 3.3 | 1.1 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 6.7 | 9.3 | 6.5 | 3.0 | 1.0 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 4.1 | 5.7 | 4.0 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.9 | 2.6 | 1.8 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5+ | 1.0 | 1.4 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
Rows: AVL goals · Columns: BRE goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).