ARS vs LEE
Arsenal (home) vs Leeds United · model confidence 81% · pregame locked (10-10 · FT 2-1 ) · lineup adj ×0.99 / ×0.91
Probabilities below are the pregame model (ratings as they stood before kickoff) — the same numbers used on Fixtures and Over 2.5 calibration. They are not recomputed with today’s live ratings.
Match Outcome
ARS win 69.3% fair 1.44
Draw 18.7% fair 5.35
LEE win 12.0% fair 8.35
Expected Goals
ARS
2.14
—
0.63
LEE
Starting-XI ADJ applied to expected goals (not a permanent rating change): ARS ×0.991 (matched 11), LEE ×0.914 (matched 11). Clamp 0.90–1.10, α=0.5.
| Over 2.5 goals | 52.5% | fair 1.91 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 47.5% | fair 2.10 |
| Both teams to score | 41.4% | fair 2.41 |
Most Likely Scores
| ARS 2-0 LEE | 14.3% | |
| ARS 1-0 LEE | 13.3% | |
| ARS 3-0 LEE | 10.2% | |
| ARS 2-1 LEE | 9.1% | |
| ARS 1-1 LEE | 8.5% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.2 | 3.9 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 1 | 13.3 | 8.5 | 2.7 | 0.6 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 2 | 14.3 | 9.1 | 2.9 | 0.6 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 3 | 10.2 | 6.5 | 2.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 4 | 5.5 | 3.5 | 1.1 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 3.5 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Rows: ARS goals · Columns: LEE goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).