ARS vs LEE
Arsenal (home) vs Leeds United · model confidence 79%
Match Outcome
ARS win 73.2% fair 1.37
Draw 15.9% fair 6.27
LEE win 10.8% fair 9.22
Probabilities are shrunk toward the league prior because rating confidence is medium (limited sample / squad uncertainty). Raw model: 77.1% / 14.8% / 8.0%.
Expected Goals
ARS
2.51
—
0.68
LEE
| Over 2.5 goals | 61.9% | fair 1.62 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 38.1% | fair 2.62 |
| Both teams to score | 45.5% | fair 2.20 |
Most Likely Scores
| ARS 2-0 LEE | 12.9% | |
| ARS 3-0 LEE | 10.8% | |
| ARS 1-0 LEE | 10.3% | |
| ARS 2-1 LEE | 8.8% | |
| ARS 3-1 LEE | 7.4% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.1 | 2.8 | 1.0 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 1 | 10.3 | 7.0 | 2.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 2 | 12.9 | 8.8 | 3.0 | 0.7 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 3 | 10.8 | 7.4 | 2.5 | 0.6 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 4 | 6.8 | 4.6 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 5.5 | 3.8 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Rows: ARS goals · Columns: LEE goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).