CRY vs NFO
Crystal Palace (home) vs Nottingham Forest · model confidence 78%
Match Outcome
CRY win 46.0% fair 2.17
Draw 26.0% fair 3.84
NFO win 27.9% fair 3.58
Probabilities are shrunk toward the league prior because rating confidence is medium (limited sample / squad uncertainty). Raw model: 46.2% / 26.3% / 27.5%.
Expected Goals
CRY
1.45
—
1.05
NFO
| Over 2.5 goals | 45.7% | fair 2.19 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 54.3% | fair 1.84 |
| Both teams to score | 49.8% | fair 2.01 |
Most Likely Scores
| CRY 1-1 NFO | 12.5% | |
| CRY 1-0 NFO | 11.9% | |
| CRY 2-1 NFO | 9.1% | |
| CRY 0-1 NFO | 8.6% | |
| CRY 2-0 NFO | 8.6% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.2 | 8.6 | 4.5 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.9 | 12.5 | 6.6 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.6 | 9.1 | 4.8 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.2 | 4.4 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.5 | 1.6 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Rows: CRY goals · Columns: NFO goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).