CRY vs NFO
Crystal Palace (home) vs Nottingham Forest · model confidence 80% · pregame locked (10-11 · FT 3-1 ) · lineup adj ×0.90 / ×1.10
Probabilities below are the pregame model (ratings as they stood before kickoff) — the same numbers used on Fixtures and Over 2.5 calibration. They are not recomputed with today’s live ratings.
Match Outcome
CRY win 38.3% fair 2.61
Draw 26.9% fair 3.72
NFO win 34.8% fair 2.87
Expected Goals
CRY
1.25
—
1.21
NFO
Starting-XI ADJ applied to expected goals (not a permanent rating change): CRY ×0.900 (matched 10), NFO ×1.100 (matched 9). Clamp 0.90–1.10, α=0.5.
| Over 2.5 goals | 44.5% | fair 2.25 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 55.5% | fair 1.80 |
| Both teams to score | 50.0% | fair 2.00 |
Most Likely Scores
| CRY 1-1 NFO | 12.9% | |
| CRY 1-0 NFO | 10.7% | |
| CRY 0-1 NFO | 10.3% | |
| CRY 0-0 NFO | 8.6% | |
| CRY 2-1 NFO | 8.1% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.6 | 10.3 | 6.2 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.7 | 12.9 | 7.8 | 3.1 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.7 | 8.1 | 4.9 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.8 | 3.4 | 2.0 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Rows: CRY goals · Columns: NFO goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).