LIV vs MCI
Liverpool (home) vs Manchester City · model confidence 86% · pregame locked (10-11 · FT 0-3 ) · lineup adj ×0.90 / ×1.00
Probabilities below are the pregame model (ratings as they stood before kickoff) — the same numbers used on Fixtures and Over 2.5 calibration. They are not recomputed with today’s live ratings.
Match Outcome
LIV win 38.3% fair 2.61
Draw 24.7% fair 4.06
MCI win 37.0% fair 2.70
Expected Goals
LIV
1.46
—
1.45
MCI
Starting-XI ADJ applied to expected goals (not a permanent rating change): LIV ×0.900 (matched 11), MCI ×1.005 (matched 9). Clamp 0.90–1.10, α=0.5.
| Over 2.5 goals | 55.7% | fair 1.80 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 44.3% | fair 2.26 |
| Both teams to score | 58.8% | fair 1.70 |
Most Likely Scores
| LIV 1-1 MCI | 11.5% | |
| LIV 2-1 MCI | 8.4% | |
| LIV 1-2 MCI | 8.4% | |
| LIV 1-0 MCI | 7.9% | |
| LIV 0-1 MCI | 7.9% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.4 | 7.9 | 5.7 | 2.8 | 1.0 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 7.9 | 11.5 | 8.4 | 4.1 | 1.5 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 5.8 | 8.4 | 6.1 | 3.0 | 1.1 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 2.8 | 4.1 | 3.0 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.5 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5+ | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Rows: LIV goals · Columns: MCI goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).