LIV vs MCI
Liverpool (home) vs Manchester City · model confidence 85%
Match Outcome
LIV win 45.0% fair 2.22
Draw 23.0% fair 4.34
MCI win 32.0% fair 3.13
Expected Goals
LIV
1.78
—
1.47
MCI
| Over 2.5 goals | 63.0% | fair 1.59 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 37.0% | fair 2.70 |
| Both teams to score | 64.0% | fair 1.56 |
Most Likely Scores
| LIV 1-1 MCI | 10.2% | |
| LIV 2-1 MCI | 9.0% | |
| LIV 1-2 MCI | 7.5% | |
| LIV 1-0 MCI | 6.9% | |
| LIV 2-2 MCI | 6.6% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.9 | 5.7 | 4.2 | 2.1 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 6.9 | 10.2 | 7.5 | 3.7 | 1.3 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 6.1 | 9.0 | 6.6 | 3.3 | 1.2 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 3.6 | 5.3 | 3.9 | 1.9 | 0.7 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 1.6 | 2.4 | 1.7 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5+ | 0.8 | 1.2 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
Rows: LIV goals · Columns: MCI goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).