IPS vs FUL
Ipswich Town (home) vs Fulham · model confidence 67%
Match Outcome
IPS win 34.4% fair 2.91
Draw 24.2% fair 4.14
FUL win 41.4% fair 2.41
Probabilities are shrunk toward the league prior because rating confidence is medium (limited sample / squad uncertainty). Raw model: 31.8% / 24.2% / 43.9%.
Expected Goals
IPS
1.34
—
1.62
FUL
| Over 2.5 goals | 56.8% | fair 1.76 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 43.2% | fair 2.32 |
| Both teams to score | 59.3% | fair 1.69 |
Most Likely Scores
| IPS 1-1 FUL | 11.2% | |
| IPS 1-2 FUL | 9.1% | |
| IPS 0-1 FUL | 8.4% | |
| IPS 2-1 FUL | 7.6% | |
| IPS 1-0 FUL | 6.9% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.2 | 8.4 | 6.8 | 3.7 | 1.5 | 0.6 |
| 1 | 6.9 | 11.2 | 9.1 | 4.9 | 2.0 | 0.9 |
| 2 | 4.7 | 7.6 | 6.1 | 3.3 | 1.3 | 0.6 |
| 3 | 2.1 | 3.4 | 2.7 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 1.1 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5+ | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Rows: IPS goals · Columns: FUL goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).