SUN vs BHA
Sunderland (home) vs Brighton & Hove Albion · model confidence 74%
Match Outcome
SUN win 30.6% fair 3.27
Draw 23.0% fair 4.34
BHA win 46.4% fair 2.16
Probabilities are shrunk toward the league prior because rating confidence is medium (limited sample / squad uncertainty). Raw model: 28.0% / 22.9% / 49.1%.
Expected Goals
SUN
1.33
—
1.82
BHA
| Over 2.5 goals | 61.0% | fair 1.64 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 39.0% | fair 2.56 |
| Both teams to score | 61.6% | fair 1.62 |
Most Likely Scores
| SUN 1-1 BHA | 10.4% | |
| SUN 1-2 BHA | 9.4% | |
| SUN 0-1 BHA | 7.8% | |
| SUN 0-2 BHA | 7.1% | |
| SUN 2-1 BHA | 6.9% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.3 | 7.8 | 7.1 | 4.3 | 2.0 | 1.0 |
| 1 | 5.7 | 10.4 | 9.4 | 5.7 | 2.6 | 1.3 |
| 2 | 3.8 | 6.9 | 6.3 | 3.8 | 1.7 | 0.9 |
| 3 | 1.7 | 3.0 | 2.8 | 1.7 | 0.8 | 0.4 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 1.0 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5+ | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Rows: SUN goals · Columns: BHA goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).