MUN vs TOT
Manchester United (home) vs Tottenham Hotspur · model confidence 73%
Match Outcome
MUN win 45.4% fair 2.20
Draw 22.4% fair 4.47
TOT win 32.2% fair 3.11
Probabilities are shrunk toward the league prior because rating confidence is medium (limited sample / squad uncertainty). Raw model: 45.5% / 22.1% / 32.4%.
Expected Goals
MUN
1.90
—
1.58
TOT
| Over 2.5 goals | 67.5% | fair 1.48 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 32.5% | fair 3.08 |
| Both teams to score | 67.5% | fair 1.48 |
Most Likely Scores
| MUN 1-1 TOT | 9.2% | |
| MUN 2-1 TOT | 8.8% | |
| MUN 1-2 TOT | 7.3% | |
| MUN 2-2 TOT | 6.9% | |
| MUN 1-0 TOT | 5.9% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.1 | 4.9 | 3.8 | 2.0 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 5.9 | 9.2 | 7.3 | 3.8 | 1.5 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 5.6 | 8.8 | 6.9 | 3.7 | 1.4 | 0.6 |
| 3 | 3.5 | 5.6 | 4.4 | 2.3 | 0.9 | 0.4 |
| 4 | 1.7 | 2.6 | 2.1 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.2 |
| 5+ | 0.9 | 1.4 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
Rows: MUN goals · Columns: TOT goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).