HUL vs EVE
Hull City (home) vs Everton · model confidence 67%
Match Outcome
HUL win 31.8% fair 3.15
Draw 25.6% fair 3.91
EVE win 42.7% fair 2.34
Probabilities are shrunk toward the league prior because rating confidence is medium (limited sample / squad uncertainty). Raw model: 28.6% / 25.9% / 45.5%.
Expected Goals
HUL
1.12
—
1.48
EVE
| Over 2.5 goals | 48.0% | fair 2.09 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 52.0% | fair 1.92 |
| Both teams to score | 51.9% | fair 1.93 |
Most Likely Scores
| HUL 1-1 EVE | 12.3% | |
| HUL 0-1 EVE | 11.1% | |
| HUL 1-2 EVE | 9.1% | |
| HUL 1-0 EVE | 8.4% | |
| HUL 0-2 EVE | 8.2% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.5 | 11.1 | 8.2 | 4.0 | 1.5 | 0.6 |
| 1 | 8.4 | 12.3 | 9.1 | 4.5 | 1.7 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 4.7 | 6.9 | 5.1 | 2.5 | 0.9 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 1.7 | 2.6 | 1.9 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Rows: HUL goals · Columns: EVE goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).