BRE vs LIV
Brentford (home) vs Liverpool · model confidence 84% · pregame locked (10-17 · FT 1-2 ) · lineup adj ×0.99 / ×1.09
Probabilities below are the pregame model (ratings as they stood before kickoff) — the same numbers used on Fixtures and Over 2.5 calibration. They are not recomputed with today’s live ratings.
Match Outcome
BRE win 29.4% fair 3.41
Draw 23.3% fair 4.29
LIV win 47.3% fair 2.11
Expected Goals
BRE
1.29
—
1.78
LIV
Starting-XI ADJ applied to expected goals (not a permanent rating change): BRE ×0.990 (matched 10), LIV ×1.090 (matched 11). Clamp 0.90–1.10, α=0.5.
| Over 2.5 goals | 59.1% | fair 1.69 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 40.9% | fair 2.45 |
| Both teams to score | 60.2% | fair 1.66 |
Most Likely Scores
| BRE 1-1 LIV | 10.7% | |
| BRE 1-2 LIV | 9.5% | |
| BRE 0-1 LIV | 8.3% | |
| BRE 0-2 LIV | 7.4% | |
| BRE 2-1 LIV | 6.9% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.7 | 8.3 | 7.4 | 4.4 | 1.9 | 1.0 |
| 1 | 6.0 | 10.7 | 9.5 | 5.6 | 2.5 | 1.2 |
| 2 | 3.9 | 6.9 | 6.1 | 3.6 | 1.6 | 0.8 |
| 3 | 1.7 | 2.9 | 2.6 | 1.6 | 0.7 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.9 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5+ | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Rows: BRE goals · Columns: LIV goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).