BHA vs CRY
Brighton & Hove Albion (home) vs Crystal Palace · model confidence 82% · pregame locked (10-18 · FT 5-0 ) · lineup adj ×0.94 / ×0.90
Probabilities below are the pregame model (ratings as they stood before kickoff) — the same numbers used on Fixtures and Over 2.5 calibration. They are not recomputed with today’s live ratings.
Match Outcome
BHA win 55.2% fair 1.81
Draw 22.2% fair 4.50
CRY win 22.5% fair 4.43
Expected Goals
BHA
1.93
—
1.11
CRY
Starting-XI ADJ applied to expected goals (not a permanent rating change): BHA ×0.941 (matched 10), CRY ×0.900 (matched 10). Clamp 0.90–1.10, α=0.5.
| Over 2.5 goals | 58.6% | fair 1.71 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 41.4% | fair 2.41 |
| Both teams to score | 57.3% | fair 1.74 |
Most Likely Scores
| BHA 1-1 CRY | 10.3% | |
| BHA 2-1 CRY | 9.9% | |
| BHA 1-0 CRY | 9.2% | |
| BHA 2-0 CRY | 8.9% | |
| BHA 3-1 CRY | 6.4% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.8 | 5.3 | 3.0 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.2 | 10.3 | 5.7 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.9 | 9.9 | 5.5 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 5.7 | 6.4 | 3.5 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.8 | 3.1 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 1.5 | 1.7 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Rows: BHA goals · Columns: CRY goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).