BHA vs CRY
Brighton & Hove Albion (home) vs Crystal Palace · model confidence 79%
Match Outcome
BHA win 49.4% fair 2.02
Draw 23.3% fair 4.30
CRY win 27.3% fair 3.66
Probabilities are shrunk toward the league prior because rating confidence is medium (limited sample / squad uncertainty). Raw model: 50.0% / 23.2% / 26.8%.
Expected Goals
BHA
1.79
—
1.25
CRY
| Over 2.5 goals | 58.7% | fair 1.70 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 41.3% | fair 2.42 |
| Both teams to score | 59.6% | fair 1.68 |
Most Likely Scores
| BHA 1-1 CRY | 10.7% | |
| BHA 2-1 CRY | 9.6% | |
| BHA 1-0 CRY | 8.5% | |
| BHA 2-0 CRY | 7.6% | |
| BHA 1-2 CRY | 6.7% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.7 | 6.0 | 3.7 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 8.5 | 10.7 | 6.7 | 2.8 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 7.6 | 9.6 | 6.0 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.6 | 5.7 | 3.6 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.0 | 2.6 | 1.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5+ | 1.0 | 1.3 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Rows: BHA goals · Columns: CRY goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).