EVE vs CHE
Everton (home) vs Chelsea · model confidence 79%
Match Outcome
EVE win 31.2% fair 3.20
Draw 24.5% fair 4.09
CHE win 44.3% fair 2.26
Probabilities are shrunk toward the league prior because rating confidence is medium (limited sample / squad uncertainty). Raw model: 29.3% / 24.5% / 46.2%.
Expected Goals
EVE
1.23
—
1.61
CHE
| Over 2.5 goals | 54.2% | fair 1.85 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 45.8% | fair 2.18 |
| Both teams to score | 56.8% | fair 1.76 |
Most Likely Scores
| EVE 1-1 CHE | 11.6% | |
| EVE 0-1 CHE | 9.4% | |
| EVE 1-2 CHE | 9.3% | |
| EVE 0-2 CHE | 7.5% | |
| EVE 1-0 CHE | 7.2% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.8 | 9.4 | 7.5 | 4.1 | 1.6 | 0.7 |
| 1 | 7.2 | 11.6 | 9.3 | 5.0 | 2.0 | 0.9 |
| 2 | 4.4 | 7.1 | 5.7 | 3.1 | 1.2 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 1.8 | 2.9 | 2.4 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.9 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5+ | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Rows: EVE goals · Columns: CHE goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).