EVE vs CHE
Everton (home) vs Chelsea · model confidence 82% · pregame locked (10-17 · FT 0-2 ) · lineup adj ×0.90 / ×1.08
Probabilities below are the pregame model (ratings as they stood before kickoff) — the same numbers used on Fixtures and Over 2.5 calibration. They are not recomputed with today’s live ratings.
Match Outcome
EVE win 27.5% fair 3.64
Draw 23.4% fair 4.27
CHE win 49.1% fair 2.04
Expected Goals
EVE
1.18
—
1.77
CHE
Starting-XI ADJ applied to expected goals (not a permanent rating change): EVE ×0.900 (matched 10), CHE ×1.084 (matched 10). Clamp 0.90–1.10, α=0.5.
| Over 2.5 goals | 56.7% | fair 1.76 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 43.3% | fair 2.31 |
| Both teams to score | 57.6% | fair 1.74 |
Most Likely Scores
| EVE 1-1 CHE | 10.9% | |
| EVE 1-2 CHE | 9.7% | |
| EVE 0-1 CHE | 9.2% | |
| EVE 0-2 CHE | 8.2% | |
| EVE 2-1 CHE | 6.5% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.2 | 9.2 | 8.2 | 4.8 | 2.1 | 1.1 |
| 1 | 6.2 | 10.9 | 9.7 | 5.7 | 2.5 | 1.3 |
| 2 | 3.6 | 6.5 | 5.7 | 3.4 | 1.5 | 0.7 |
| 3 | 1.4 | 2.5 | 2.3 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.8 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5+ | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Rows: EVE goals · Columns: CHE goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).