MCI vs IPS
Manchester City (home) vs Ipswich Town · model confidence 71%
Match Outcome
MCI win 74.7% fair 1.34
Draw 14.0% fair 7.14
IPS win 11.3% fair 8.85
Probabilities are shrunk toward the league prior because rating confidence is medium (limited sample / squad uncertainty). Raw model: 80.9% / 11.9% / 7.2%.
Expected Goals
MCI
3.02
—
0.84
IPS
| Over 2.5 goals | 74.1% | fair 1.35 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 25.9% | fair 3.86 |
| Both teams to score | 53.9% | fair 1.85 |
Most Likely Scores
| MCI 3-0 IPS | 9.7% | |
| MCI 2-0 IPS | 9.6% | |
| MCI 3-1 IPS | 8.1% | |
| MCI 2-1 IPS | 8.1% | |
| MCI 4-0 IPS | 7.3% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.1 | 1.8 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 1 | 6.4 | 5.3 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 2 | 9.6 | 8.1 | 3.4 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 3 | 9.7 | 8.1 | 3.4 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 4 | 7.3 | 6.1 | 2.6 | 0.7 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 8.2 | 6.8 | 2.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
Rows: MCI goals · Columns: IPS goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).