FUL vs HUL
Fulham (home) vs Hull City · model confidence 67%
Match Outcome
FUL win 57.1% fair 1.75
Draw 21.8% fair 4.59
HUL win 21.1% fair 4.74
Probabilities are shrunk toward the league prior because rating confidence is medium (limited sample / squad uncertainty). Raw model: 60.0% / 21.3% / 18.7%.
Expected Goals
FUL
1.99
—
1.02
HUL
| Over 2.5 goals | 57.9% | fair 1.73 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 42.1% | fair 2.37 |
| Both teams to score | 55.1% | fair 1.81 |
Most Likely Scores
| FUL 1-1 HUL | 10.0% | |
| FUL 2-1 HUL | 10.0% | |
| FUL 1-0 HUL | 9.8% | |
| FUL 2-0 HUL | 9.8% | |
| FUL 3-1 HUL | 6.6% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.9 | 5.0 | 2.5 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.8 | 10.0 | 5.1 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.8 | 10.0 | 5.1 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.5 | 6.6 | 3.4 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 3.2 | 3.3 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 1.9 | 1.9 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Rows: FUL goals · Columns: HUL goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).