BOU vs SUN
AFC Bournemouth (home) vs Sunderland · model confidence 73%
Match Outcome
BOU win 53.4% fair 1.87
Draw 22.1% fair 4.53
SUN win 24.5% fair 4.08
Probabilities are shrunk toward the league prior because rating confidence is medium (limited sample / squad uncertainty). Raw model: 55.0% / 21.7% / 23.2%.
Expected Goals
BOU
1.98
—
1.22
SUN
| Over 2.5 goals | 62.0% | fair 1.61 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 38.0% | fair 2.63 |
| Both teams to score | 60.8% | fair 1.65 |
Most Likely Scores
| BOU 1-1 SUN | 9.8% | |
| BOU 2-1 SUN | 9.7% | |
| BOU 1-0 SUN | 8.1% | |
| BOU 2-0 SUN | 8.0% | |
| BOU 3-1 SUN | 6.4% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.1 | 5.0 | 3.0 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 8.1 | 9.8 | 6.0 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.0 | 9.7 | 5.9 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 5.3 | 6.4 | 3.9 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.6 | 3.2 | 1.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5+ | 1.5 | 1.8 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Rows: BOU goals · Columns: SUN goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).