LEE vs MUN
Leeds United (home) vs Manchester United · model confidence 72%
Match Outcome
LEE win 38.1% fair 2.63
Draw 24.2% fair 4.13
MUN win 37.7% fair 2.65
Probabilities are shrunk toward the league prior because rating confidence is medium (limited sample / squad uncertainty). Raw model: 36.7% / 24.3% / 39.1%.
Expected Goals
LEE
1.48
—
1.53
MUN
| Over 2.5 goals | 57.9% | fair 1.73 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 42.1% | fair 2.37 |
| Both teams to score | 60.5% | fair 1.65 |
Most Likely Scores
| LEE 1-1 MUN | 11.2% | |
| LEE 1-2 MUN | 8.6% | |
| LEE 2-1 MUN | 8.2% | |
| LEE 0-1 MUN | 7.6% | |
| LEE 1-0 MUN | 7.3% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.9 | 7.6 | 5.8 | 3.0 | 1.1 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 7.3 | 11.2 | 8.6 | 4.4 | 1.7 | 0.7 |
| 2 | 5.4 | 8.2 | 6.3 | 3.2 | 1.2 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 2.7 | 4.1 | 3.1 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.5 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5+ | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Rows: LEE goals · Columns: MUN goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).