TOT vs COV
Tottenham Hotspur (home) vs Coventry City · model confidence 64%
Match Outcome
TOT win 63.2% fair 1.58
Draw 18.5% fair 5.39
COV win 18.3% fair 5.48
Probabilities are shrunk toward the league prior because rating confidence is low (limited sample / squad uncertainty). Raw model: 68.1% / 17.1% / 14.9%.
Expected Goals
TOT
2.54
—
1.12
COV
| Over 2.5 goals | 70.8% | fair 1.41 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 29.2% | fair 3.43 |
| Both teams to score | 62.1% | fair 1.61 |
Most Likely Scores
| TOT 2-1 COV | 9.3% | |
| TOT 2-0 COV | 8.3% | |
| TOT 3-1 COV | 7.9% | |
| TOT 1-1 COV | 7.3% | |
| TOT 3-0 COV | 7.0% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.6 | 2.9 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 1 | 6.5 | 7.3 | 4.1 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.3 | 9.3 | 5.2 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 7.0 | 7.9 | 4.4 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 4.4 | 5.0 | 2.8 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5+ | 3.7 | 4.2 | 2.3 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
Rows: TOT goals · Columns: COV goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).