NEW vs AVL
Newcastle United (home) vs Aston Villa · model confidence 83% · pregame locked (10-17 · FT 0-1 ) · lineup adj ×0.95 / ×0.90
Probabilities below are the pregame model (ratings as they stood before kickoff) — the same numbers used on Fixtures and Over 2.5 calibration. They are not recomputed with today’s live ratings.
Match Outcome
NEW win 48.3% fair 2.07
Draw 23.4% fair 4.27
AVL win 28.3% fair 3.54
Expected Goals
NEW
1.76
—
1.28
AVL
Starting-XI ADJ applied to expected goals (not a permanent rating change): NEW ×0.950 (matched 10), AVL ×0.900 (matched 6). Clamp 0.90–1.10, α=0.5.
| Over 2.5 goals | 58.6% | fair 1.71 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 41.4% | fair 2.42 |
| Both teams to score | 59.8% | fair 1.67 |
Most Likely Scores
| NEW 1-1 AVL | 10.8% | |
| NEW 2-1 AVL | 9.5% | |
| NEW 1-0 AVL | 8.4% | |
| NEW 2-0 AVL | 7.4% | |
| NEW 1-2 AVL | 6.9% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.8 | 6.1 | 3.9 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 8.4 | 10.8 | 6.9 | 2.9 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 7.4 | 9.5 | 6.1 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 4.3 | 5.6 | 3.6 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.9 | 2.4 | 1.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5+ | 0.9 | 1.2 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Rows: NEW goals · Columns: AVL goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).