NEW vs AVL
Newcastle United (home) vs Aston Villa · model confidence 80%
Match Outcome
NEW win 51.0% fair 1.96
Draw 22.3% fair 4.49
AVL win 26.7% fair 3.74
Expected Goals
NEW
1.94
—
1.33
AVL
| Over 2.5 goals | 63.5% | fair 1.58 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 36.5% | fair 2.74 |
| Both teams to score | 63.0% | fair 1.59 |
Most Likely Scores
| NEW 1-1 AVL | 9.8% | |
| NEW 2-1 AVL | 9.5% | |
| NEW 1-0 AVL | 7.4% | |
| NEW 2-0 AVL | 7.2% | |
| NEW 1-2 AVL | 6.5% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.8 | 5.0 | 3.4 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 7.4 | 9.8 | 6.5 | 2.9 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 7.2 | 9.5 | 6.3 | 2.8 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 4.6 | 6.2 | 4.1 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 2.3 | 3.0 | 2.0 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5+ | 1.3 | 1.7 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
Rows: NEW goals · Columns: AVL goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).