NFO vs ARS
Nottingham Forest (home) vs Arsenal · model confidence 84% · pregame locked (10-18 · FT 0-1 ) · lineup adj ×1.10 / ×1.10
Probabilities below are the pregame model (ratings as they stood before kickoff) — the same numbers used on Fixtures and Over 2.5 calibration. They are not recomputed with today’s live ratings.
Match Outcome
NFO win 19.1% fair 5.23
Draw 22.5% fair 4.45
ARS win 58.4% fair 1.71
Expected Goals
NFO
0.83
—
1.84
ARS
Starting-XI ADJ applied to expected goals (not a permanent rating change): NFO ×1.100 (matched 9), ARS ×1.100 (matched 9). Clamp 0.90–1.10, α=0.5.
| Over 2.5 goals | 49.8% | fair 2.01 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 50.2% | fair 1.99 |
| Both teams to score | 47.4% | fair 2.11 |
Most Likely Scores
| NFO 0-1 ARS | 12.8% | |
| NFO 0-2 ARS | 11.7% | |
| NFO 1-1 ARS | 10.6% | |
| NFO 1-2 ARS | 9.7% | |
| NFO 0-3 ARS | 7.2% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.9 | 12.8 | 11.7 | 7.2 | 3.3 | 1.7 |
| 1 | 5.8 | 10.6 | 9.7 | 6.0 | 2.7 | 1.4 |
| 2 | 2.4 | 4.4 | 4.0 | 2.5 | 1.1 | 0.6 |
| 3 | 0.7 | 1.2 | 1.1 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.1 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Rows: NFO goals · Columns: ARS goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).