NFO vs ARS
Nottingham Forest (home) vs Arsenal · model confidence 82%
Match Outcome
NFO win 18.7% fair 5.35
Draw 22.7% fair 4.41
ARS win 58.6% fair 1.71
Expected Goals
NFO
0.77
—
1.80
ARS
| Over 2.5 goals | 47.5% | fair 2.10 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 52.5% | fair 1.91 |
| Both teams to score | 44.9% | fair 2.23 |
Most Likely Scores
| NFO 0-1 ARS | 13.7% | |
| NFO 0-2 ARS | 12.4% | |
| NFO 1-1 ARS | 10.6% | |
| NFO 1-2 ARS | 9.6% | |
| NFO 0-0 ARS | 7.6% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.6 | 13.7 | 12.4 | 7.5 | 3.4 | 1.7 |
| 1 | 5.9 | 10.6 | 9.6 | 5.7 | 2.6 | 1.3 |
| 2 | 2.3 | 4.1 | 3.7 | 2.2 | 1.0 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 0.6 | 1.0 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Rows: NFO goals · Columns: ARS goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).