IPS vs NFO
Ipswich Town (home) vs Nottingham Forest · model confidence 66%
Match Outcome
IPS win 34.5% fair 2.90
Draw 25.6% fair 3.91
NFO win 39.9% fair 2.51
Probabilities are shrunk toward the league prior because rating confidence is medium (limited sample / squad uncertainty). Raw model: 31.9% / 26.0% / 42.1%.
Expected Goals
IPS
1.21
—
1.43
NFO
| Over 2.5 goals | 49.0% | fair 2.04 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 51.0% | fair 1.96 |
| Both teams to score | 53.2% | fair 1.88 |
Most Likely Scores
| IPS 1-1 NFO | 12.4% | |
| IPS 0-1 NFO | 10.3% | |
| IPS 1-2 NFO | 8.8% | |
| IPS 1-0 NFO | 8.7% | |
| IPS 2-1 NFO | 7.5% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.2 | 10.3 | 7.3 | 3.5 | 1.2 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 8.7 | 12.4 | 8.8 | 4.2 | 1.5 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 5.2 | 7.5 | 5.3 | 2.5 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 2.1 | 3.0 | 2.1 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Rows: IPS goals · Columns: NFO goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).