LIV vs BHA
Liverpool (home) vs Brighton & Hove Albion · model confidence 84% · pregame locked (10-25 · FT 2-0 ) · lineup adj ×0.90 / ×0.94
Probabilities below are the pregame model (ratings as they stood before kickoff) — the same numbers used on Fixtures and Over 2.5 calibration. They are not recomputed with today’s live ratings.
Match Outcome
LIV win 45.2% fair 2.21
Draw 24.2% fair 4.13
BHA win 30.5% fair 3.27
Expected Goals
LIV
1.63
—
1.30
BHA
Starting-XI ADJ applied to expected goals (not a permanent rating change): LIV ×0.900 (matched 11), BHA ×0.941 (matched 10). Clamp 0.90–1.10, α=0.5.
| Over 2.5 goals | 56.1% | fair 1.78 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 43.9% | fair 2.28 |
| Both teams to score | 58.5% | fair 1.71 |
Most Likely Scores
| LIV 1-1 BHA | 11.3% | |
| LIV 2-1 BHA | 9.2% | |
| LIV 1-0 BHA | 8.7% | |
| LIV 1-2 BHA | 7.3% | |
| LIV 2-0 BHA | 7.1% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.3 | 6.9 | 4.5 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 8.7 | 11.3 | 7.3 | 3.2 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 7.1 | 9.2 | 6.0 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 3.9 | 5.0 | 3.3 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.6 | 2.0 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5+ | 0.7 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Rows: LIV goals · Columns: BHA goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).