CRY vs LIV
Crystal Palace (home) vs Liverpool · model confidence 85% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
CRY win 25.1% fair 3.99
Draw 23.4% fair 4.27
LIV win 51.5% fair 1.94
Expected Goals
CRY
1.09
—
1.78
LIV
| Over 2.5 goals | 54.6% | fair 1.83 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 45.4% | fair 2.20 |
| Both teams to score | 55.1% | fair 1.81 |
Most Likely Scores
| CRY 1-1 LIV | 11.0% | |
| CRY 0-1 LIV | 10.1% | |
| CRY 1-2 LIV | 9.8% | |
| CRY 0-2 LIV | 9.0% | |
| CRY 1-0 LIV | 6.2% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.7 | 10.1 | 9.0 | 5.3 | 2.4 | 1.2 |
| 1 | 6.2 | 11.0 | 9.8 | 5.8 | 2.6 | 1.3 |
| 2 | 3.4 | 6.0 | 5.3 | 3.2 | 1.4 | 0.7 |
| 3 | 1.2 | 2.2 | 1.9 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
| 5+ | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Rows: CRY goals · Columns: LIV goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).