FUL vs NEW
Fulham (home) vs Newcastle United · model confidence 83% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
FUL win 35.2% fair 2.84
Draw 25.1% fair 3.99
NEW win 39.7% fair 2.52
Expected Goals
FUL
1.33
—
1.47
NEW
| Over 2.5 goals | 53.1% | fair 1.88 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 46.9% | fair 2.13 |
| Both teams to score | 56.7% | fair 1.76 |
Most Likely Scores
| FUL 1-1 NEW | 11.9% | |
| FUL 0-1 NEW | 8.9% | |
| FUL 1-2 NEW | 8.7% | |
| FUL 1-0 NEW | 8.1% | |
| FUL 2-1 NEW | 7.9% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.1 | 8.9 | 6.6 | 3.2 | 1.2 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 8.1 | 11.9 | 8.7 | 4.3 | 1.6 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 5.4 | 7.9 | 5.8 | 2.9 | 1.1 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 2.4 | 3.5 | 2.6 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.8 | 1.2 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5+ | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Rows: FUL goals · Columns: NEW goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).