FUL vs NEW
Fulham (home) vs Newcastle United · model confidence 79%
Match Outcome
FUL win 32.8% fair 3.04
Draw 23.6% fair 4.23
NEW win 43.5% fair 2.30
Probabilities are shrunk toward the league prior because rating confidence is medium (limited sample / squad uncertainty). Raw model: 31.2% / 23.6% / 45.3%.
Expected Goals
FUL
1.38
—
1.71
NEW
| Over 2.5 goals | 59.6% | fair 1.68 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 40.4% | fair 2.47 |
| Both teams to score | 61.2% | fair 1.63 |
Most Likely Scores
| FUL 1-1 NEW | 10.8% | |
| FUL 1-2 NEW | 9.2% | |
| FUL 0-1 NEW | 7.8% | |
| FUL 2-1 NEW | 7.4% | |
| FUL 0-2 NEW | 6.7% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.6 | 7.8 | 6.7 | 3.8 | 1.6 | 0.8 |
| 1 | 6.3 | 10.8 | 9.2 | 5.2 | 2.2 | 1.0 |
| 2 | 4.4 | 7.4 | 6.3 | 3.6 | 1.5 | 0.7 |
| 3 | 2.0 | 3.4 | 2.9 | 1.7 | 0.7 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 1.2 | 1.0 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5+ | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Rows: FUL goals · Columns: NEW goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).