NFO vs MCI
Nottingham Forest (home) vs Manchester City · model confidence 84% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
NFO win 23.0% fair 4.34
Draw 22.8% fair 4.38
MCI win 54.1% fair 1.85
Expected Goals
NFO
1.02
—
1.84
MCI
| Over 2.5 goals | 54.5% | fair 1.83 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 45.5% | fair 2.20 |
| Both teams to score | 53.8% | fair 1.86 |
Most Likely Scores
| NFO 1-1 MCI | 10.7% | |
| NFO 0-1 MCI | 10.5% | |
| NFO 1-2 MCI | 9.9% | |
| NFO 0-2 MCI | 9.7% | |
| NFO 1-3 MCI | 6.1% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.7 | 10.5 | 9.7 | 5.9 | 2.7 | 1.4 |
| 1 | 5.8 | 10.7 | 9.9 | 6.1 | 2.8 | 1.5 |
| 2 | 3.0 | 5.5 | 5.0 | 3.1 | 1.4 | 0.7 |
| 3 | 1.0 | 1.9 | 1.7 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
| 5+ | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Rows: NFO goals · Columns: MCI goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).