NFO vs MCI
Nottingham Forest (home) vs Manchester City · model confidence 80%
Match Outcome
NFO win 23.9% fair 4.19
Draw 22.4% fair 4.47
MCI win 53.7% fair 1.86
Expected Goals
NFO
1.08
—
1.91
MCI
| Over 2.5 goals | 57.3% | fair 1.74 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 42.7% | fair 2.34 |
| Both teams to score | 56.2% | fair 1.78 |
Most Likely Scores
| NFO 1-1 MCI | 10.4% | |
| NFO 1-2 MCI | 9.9% | |
| NFO 0-1 MCI | 9.6% | |
| NFO 0-2 MCI | 9.2% | |
| NFO 1-3 MCI | 6.3% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.1 | 9.6 | 9.2 | 5.8 | 2.8 | 1.5 |
| 1 | 5.4 | 10.4 | 9.9 | 6.3 | 3.0 | 1.6 |
| 2 | 2.9 | 5.6 | 5.3 | 3.4 | 1.6 | 0.9 |
| 3 | 1.1 | 2.0 | 1.9 | 1.2 | 0.6 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5+ | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Rows: NFO goals · Columns: MCI goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).