EVE vs COV
Everton (home) vs Coventry City · model confidence 75% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
EVE win 54.0% fair 1.85
Draw 24.3% fair 4.11
COV win 21.7% fair 4.61
Probabilities are shrunk toward the league prior because rating confidence is medium (limited sample / squad uncertainty). Raw model: 55.5% / 24.4% / 20.1%.
Expected Goals
EVE
1.66
—
0.89
COV
| Over 2.5 goals | 46.8% | fair 2.14 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 53.2% | fair 1.88 |
| Both teams to score | 47.7% | fair 2.10 |
Most Likely Scores
| EVE 1-0 COV | 13.0% | |
| EVE 1-1 COV | 11.5% | |
| EVE 2-0 COV | 10.8% | |
| EVE 2-1 COV | 9.6% | |
| EVE 0-0 COV | 7.8% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.8 | 7.0 | 3.1 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 1 | 13.0 | 11.5 | 5.1 | 1.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.8 | 9.6 | 4.3 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.9 | 5.3 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 4 | 2.5 | 2.2 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 1.1 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Rows: EVE goals · Columns: COV goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).