EVE vs COV
Everton (home) vs Coventry City · model confidence 67%
Match Outcome
EVE win 56.2% fair 1.78
Draw 22.6% fair 4.43
COV win 21.2% fair 4.72
Probabilities are shrunk toward the league prior because rating confidence is medium (limited sample / squad uncertainty). Raw model: 58.9% / 22.3% / 18.8%.
Expected Goals
EVE
1.87
—
0.96
COV
| Over 2.5 goals | 53.8% | fair 1.86 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 46.2% | fair 2.16 |
| Both teams to score | 52.1% | fair 1.92 |
Most Likely Scores
| EVE 1-0 COV | 11.1% | |
| EVE 1-1 COV | 10.6% | |
| EVE 2-0 COV | 10.4% | |
| EVE 2-1 COV | 9.9% | |
| EVE 3-0 COV | 6.5% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.9 | 5.6 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 1 | 11.1 | 10.6 | 5.0 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.4 | 9.9 | 4.7 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.5 | 6.2 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 3.0 | 2.9 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 1.6 | 1.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Rows: EVE goals · Columns: COV goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).