ARS vs HUL
Arsenal (home) vs Hull City · model confidence 72%
Match Outcome
ARS win 78.7% fair 1.27
Draw 12.6% fair 7.94
HUL win 8.7% fair 11.49
Probabilities are shrunk toward the league prior because rating confidence is medium (limited sample / squad uncertainty). Raw model: 85.4% / 10.3% / 4.3%.
Expected Goals
ARS
2.94
—
0.54
HUL
| Over 2.5 goals | 67.5% | fair 1.48 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 32.5% | fair 3.08 |
| Both teams to score | 39.6% | fair 2.52 |
Most Likely Scores
| ARS 2-0 HUL | 13.3% | |
| ARS 3-0 HUL | 13.0% | |
| ARS 4-0 HUL | 9.6% | |
| ARS 1-0 HUL | 9.1% | |
| ARS 2-1 HUL | 7.2% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.1 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 1 | 9.1 | 4.9 | 1.3 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 2 | 13.3 | 7.2 | 2.0 | 0.4 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 3 | 13.0 | 7.1 | 1.9 | 0.3 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 4 | 9.6 | 5.2 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 10.1 | 5.5 | 1.5 | 0.3 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Rows: ARS goals · Columns: HUL goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).