ARS vs HUL
Arsenal (home) vs Hull City · model confidence 78% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
ARS win 74.9% fair 1.33
Draw 15.6% fair 6.40
HUL win 9.4% fair 10.59
Probabilities are shrunk toward the league prior because rating confidence is medium (limited sample / squad uncertainty). Raw model: 79.4% / 14.4% / 6.2%.
Expected Goals
ARS
2.42
—
0.53
HUL
| Over 2.5 goals | 56.6% | fair 1.77 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 43.4% | fair 2.30 |
| Both teams to score | 37.4% | fair 2.68 |
Most Likely Scores
| ARS 2-0 HUL | 15.3% | |
| ARS 1-0 HUL | 12.7% | |
| ARS 3-0 HUL | 12.4% | |
| ARS 2-1 HUL | 8.1% | |
| ARS 4-0 HUL | 7.5% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.2 | 2.8 | 0.7 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 1 | 12.7 | 6.7 | 1.8 | 0.3 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 2 | 15.3 | 8.1 | 2.1 | 0.4 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 3 | 12.4 | 6.5 | 1.7 | 0.3 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 4 | 7.5 | 4.0 | 1.0 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 5.8 | 3.1 | 0.8 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Rows: ARS goals · Columns: HUL goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).