Gameweek 11
Pregame model probabilities for every fixture. Played matches show the prediction made with ratings as they stood before kickoff — no hindsight.
| Date (UTC) | Match | Home | Draw | Away | Result | Model pick | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11-21 15:00 | BOU vs NFO | 45.2% | 24.6% | 30.2% | — | HOME | analysis → |
| 11-21 15:00 | AVL vs SUN | 58.2% | 20.9% | 20.9% | — | HOME | analysis → |
| 11-21 15:00 | BRE vs EVE | 47.0% | 24.6% | 28.5% | — | HOME | analysis → |
| 11-21 15:00 | CHE vs LEE | 60.1% | 20.3% | 19.6% | — | HOME | analysis → |
| 11-21 15:00 | COV vs CRY | 29.1% | 23.8% | 47.0% | — | AWAY | analysis → |
| 11-21 15:00 | HUL vs BHA | 26.2% | 22.1% | 51.7% | — | AWAY | analysis → |
| 11-21 15:00 | LIV vs MUN | 62.0% | 19.6% | 18.4% | — | HOME | analysis → |
| 11-21 15:00 | MCI vs FUL | 67.7% | 17.3% | 14.9% | — | HOME | analysis → |
| 11-21 15:00 | NEW vs ARS | 26.4% | 24.1% | 49.5% | — | AWAY | analysis → |
| 11-21 15:00 | TOT vs IPS | 59.0% | 20.0% | 21.0% | — | HOME | analysis → |
Probabilities: home / draw / away, shrunk toward the league prior when rating confidence is low. "Analysis" links use current ratings, so for played matches they may differ slightly from the pregame numbers shown here.