Gameweek 11
Pregame model probabilities for every fixture. Played matches show the prediction made with ratings as they stood before kickoff — no hindsight.
| Date (UTC) | Match | Home | Draw | Away | Result | Model pick | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11-21 12:30 | MCI vs FUL | 67.0% | 18.2% | 14.8% | — | HOME | analysis → |
| 11-21 15:00 | BOU vs NFO | 46.8% | 25.0% | 28.2% | — | HOME | analysis → |
| 11-21 15:00 | AVL vs SUN | 59.2% | 21.5% | 19.4% | — | HOME | analysis → |
| 11-21 15:00 | CHE vs LEE | 55.3% | 22.0% | 22.7% | — | HOME | analysis → |
| 11-21 15:00 | COV vs CRY | 31.3% | 24.6% | 44.1% | — | AWAY | analysis → |
| 11-21 15:00 | TOT vs IPS | 58.3% | 20.6% | 21.1% | — | HOME | analysis → |
| 11-21 17:30 | NEW vs ARS | 24.5% | 24.4% | 51.1% | — | AWAY | analysis → |
| 11-22 14:00 | HUL vs BHA | 22.6% | 21.3% | 56.1% | — | AWAY | analysis → |
| 11-22 16:30 | LIV vs MUN | 60.7% | 20.9% | 18.5% | — | HOME | analysis → |
| 11-23 20:00 | BRE vs EVE | 48.5% | 25.1% | 26.4% | — | HOME | analysis → |
Probabilities: home / draw / away, shrunk toward the league prior when rating confidence is low. "Analysis" for played matches shows the locked pregame model (same as Fixtures / Over 2.5 calibration); open fixtures use current ratings.