Gameweek 12
Pregame model probabilities for every fixture. Played matches show the prediction made with ratings as they stood before kickoff — no hindsight.
| Date (UTC) | Match | Home | Draw | Away | Result | Model pick | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11-27 20:00 | NFO vs CHE | 31.9% | 24.9% | 43.3% | — | AWAY | analysis → |
| 11-28 15:00 | LEE vs COV | 56.3% | 23.0% | 20.8% | — | HOME | analysis → |
| 11-28 15:00 | MUN vs BRE | 41.9% | 24.0% | 34.1% | — | HOME | analysis → |
| 11-28 17:30 | IPS vs AVL | 29.1% | 23.1% | 47.8% | — | AWAY | analysis → |
| 11-29 12:00 | EVE vs LIV | 24.8% | 25.3% | 50.0% | — | AWAY | analysis → |
| 11-29 14:05 | BHA vs NEW | 51.7% | 21.8% | 26.4% | — | HOME | analysis → |
| 11-29 14:05 | CRY vs HUL | 52.7% | 23.8% | 23.5% | — | HOME | analysis → |
| 11-29 14:05 | FUL vs BOU | 40.5% | 24.7% | 34.7% | — | HOME | analysis → |
| 11-29 14:05 | SUN vs TOT | 31.8% | 24.1% | 44.1% | — | AWAY | analysis → |
| 11-29 16:30 | ARS vs MCI | 50.1% | 24.3% | 25.6% | — | HOME | analysis → |
Probabilities: home / draw / away, shrunk toward the league prior when rating confidence is low. "Analysis" for played matches shows the locked pregame model (same as Fixtures / Over 2.5 calibration); open fixtures use current ratings.