Gameweek 12
Pregame model probabilities for every fixture. Played matches show the prediction made with ratings as they stood before kickoff — no hindsight.
| Date (UTC) | Match | Home | Draw | Away | Result | Model pick | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11-28 15:00 | ARS vs MCI | 52.4% | 23.2% | 24.4% | — | HOME | analysis → |
| 11-28 15:00 | BHA vs NEW | 40.0% | 23.4% | 36.7% | — | HOME | analysis → |
| 11-28 15:00 | CRY vs HUL | 58.2% | 21.9% | 19.9% | — | HOME | analysis → |
| 11-28 15:00 | EVE vs LIV | 24.6% | 23.2% | 52.2% | — | AWAY | analysis → |
| 11-28 15:00 | FUL vs BOU | 43.3% | 23.5% | 33.2% | — | HOME | analysis → |
| 11-28 15:00 | IPS vs AVL | 29.6% | 22.8% | 47.5% | — | AWAY | analysis → |
| 11-28 15:00 | LEE vs COV | 55.3% | 22.1% | 22.7% | — | HOME | analysis → |
| 11-28 15:00 | MUN vs BRE | 45.1% | 23.5% | 31.4% | — | HOME | analysis → |
| 11-28 15:00 | NFO vs CHE | 31.6% | 24.7% | 43.7% | — | AWAY | analysis → |
| 11-28 15:00 | SUN vs TOT | 34.2% | 22.7% | 43.1% | — | AWAY | analysis → |
Probabilities: home / draw / away, shrunk toward the league prior when rating confidence is low. "Analysis" links use current ratings, so for played matches they may differ slightly from the pregame numbers shown here.