Gameweek 13
Pregame model probabilities for every fixture. Played matches show the prediction made with ratings as they stood before kickoff — no hindsight.
| Date (UTC) | Match | Home | Draw | Away | Result | Model pick | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12-01 20:00 | COV vs IPS | 38.9% | 24.7% | 36.3% | — | HOME | analysis → |
| 12-02 19:30 | CHE vs CRY | 57.9% | 20.7% | 21.4% | — | HOME | analysis → |
| 12-02 19:30 | HUL vs NFO | 33.5% | 27.6% | 38.9% | — | AWAY | analysis → |
| 12-02 19:30 | LIV vs SUN | 69.1% | 18.0% | 12.9% | — | HOME | analysis → |
| 12-02 19:30 | MCI vs LEE | 65.9% | 18.6% | 15.4% | — | HOME | analysis → |
| 12-02 20:15 | BOU vs BHA | 33.3% | 22.4% | 44.3% | — | AWAY | analysis → |
| 12-02 20:15 | AVL vs EVE | 51.2% | 24.6% | 24.2% | — | HOME | analysis → |
| 12-02 20:15 | BRE vs ARS | 22.0% | 23.6% | 54.4% | — | AWAY | analysis → |
| 12-02 20:15 | NEW vs MUN | 50.5% | 22.9% | 26.7% | — | HOME | analysis → |
| 12-03 20:00 | TOT vs FUL | 48.7% | 23.9% | 27.4% | — | HOME | analysis → |
Probabilities: home / draw / away, shrunk toward the league prior when rating confidence is low. "Analysis" for played matches shows the locked pregame model (same as Fixtures / Over 2.5 calibration); open fixtures use current ratings.