NEW vs MUN
Newcastle United (home) vs Manchester United · model confidence 76%
Match Outcome
NEW win 53.0% fair 1.89
Draw 22.2% fair 4.51
MUN win 24.9% fair 4.02
Probabilities are shrunk toward the league prior because rating confidence is medium (limited sample / squad uncertainty). Raw model: 54.2% / 21.9% / 23.9%.
Expected Goals
NEW
1.97
—
1.24
MUN
| Over 2.5 goals | 62.1% | fair 1.61 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 37.9% | fair 2.64 |
| Both teams to score | 61.1% | fair 1.64 |
Most Likely Scores
| NEW 1-1 MUN | 9.9% | |
| NEW 2-1 MUN | 9.7% | |
| NEW 1-0 MUN | 8.0% | |
| NEW 2-0 MUN | 7.8% | |
| NEW 3-1 MUN | 6.4% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.0 | 5.0 | 3.1 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 8.0 | 9.9 | 6.1 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.8 | 9.7 | 6.0 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 5.1 | 6.4 | 3.9 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 2.5 | 3.1 | 1.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5+ | 1.4 | 1.8 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Rows: NEW goals · Columns: MUN goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).