NEW vs MUN
Newcastle United (home) vs Manchester United · model confidence 81% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
NEW win 50.5% fair 1.98
Draw 22.9% fair 4.37
MUN win 26.7% fair 3.75
Expected Goals
NEW
1.85
—
1.26
MUN
| Over 2.5 goals | 60.2% | fair 1.66 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 39.8% | fair 2.51 |
| Both teams to score | 60.5% | fair 1.65 |
Most Likely Scores
| NEW 1-1 MUN | 10.4% | |
| NEW 2-1 MUN | 9.6% | |
| NEW 1-0 MUN | 8.2% | |
| NEW 2-0 MUN | 7.6% | |
| NEW 1-2 MUN | 6.6% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.4 | 5.6 | 3.5 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 8.2 | 10.4 | 6.6 | 2.8 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 7.6 | 9.6 | 6.1 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 4.7 | 5.9 | 3.7 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 2.2 | 2.7 | 1.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5+ | 1.1 | 1.4 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Rows: NEW goals · Columns: MUN goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).