Gameweek 14
Pregame model probabilities for every fixture. Played matches show the prediction made with ratings as they stood before kickoff — no hindsight.
| Date (UTC) | Match | Home | Draw | Away | Result | Model pick | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12-05 15:00 | BOU vs HUL | 58.9% | 20.8% | 20.3% | — | HOME | analysis → |
| 12-05 15:00 | AVL vs CRY | 48.1% | 23.6% | 28.3% | — | HOME | analysis → |
| 12-05 15:00 | BRE vs MCI | 26.2% | 21.4% | 52.4% | — | AWAY | analysis → |
| 12-05 15:00 | CHE vs LIV | 36.5% | 23.4% | 40.1% | — | AWAY | analysis → |
| 12-05 15:00 | EVE vs FUL | 42.4% | 25.4% | 32.2% | — | HOME | analysis → |
| 12-05 15:00 | LEE vs IPS | 51.1% | 23.2% | 25.7% | — | HOME | analysis → |
| 12-05 15:00 | MUN vs COV | 61.6% | 19.8% | 18.6% | — | HOME | analysis → |
| 12-05 15:00 | NEW vs SUN | 63.5% | 19.3% | 17.2% | — | HOME | analysis → |
| 12-05 15:00 | NFO vs BHA | 36.4% | 25.0% | 38.6% | — | AWAY | analysis → |
| 12-05 15:00 | TOT vs ARS | 20.7% | 20.4% | 59.0% | — | AWAY | analysis → |
Probabilities: home / draw / away, shrunk toward the league prior when rating confidence is low. "Analysis" links use current ratings, so for played matches they may differ slightly from the pregame numbers shown here.