Gameweek 14
Pregame model probabilities for every fixture. Played matches show the prediction made with ratings as they stood before kickoff — no hindsight.
| Date (UTC) | Match | Home | Draw | Away | Result | Model pick | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12-05 12:30 | CHE vs LIV | 36.2% | 23.9% | 39.9% | — | AWAY | analysis → |
| 12-05 15:00 | BOU vs HUL | 57.0% | 22.0% | 21.0% | — | HOME | analysis → |
| 12-05 15:00 | AVL vs CRY | 52.6% | 22.9% | 24.6% | — | HOME | analysis → |
| 12-05 15:00 | LEE vs IPS | 52.3% | 23.4% | 24.3% | — | HOME | analysis → |
| 12-05 15:00 | MUN vs COV | 59.6% | 21.1% | 19.3% | — | HOME | analysis → |
| 12-05 17:30 | NFO vs BHA | 29.3% | 24.4% | 46.2% | — | AWAY | analysis → |
| 12-05 20:00 | BRE vs MCI | 27.2% | 21.9% | 50.8% | — | AWAY | analysis → |
| 12-06 14:00 | EVE vs FUL | 40.8% | 27.4% | 31.8% | — | HOME | analysis → |
| 12-06 14:00 | NEW vs SUN | 60.2% | 21.0% | 18.9% | — | HOME | analysis → |
| 12-06 16:30 | TOT vs ARS | 22.3% | 23.1% | 54.6% | — | AWAY | analysis → |
Probabilities: home / draw / away, shrunk toward the league prior when rating confidence is low. "Analysis" for played matches shows the locked pregame model (same as Fixtures / Over 2.5 calibration); open fixtures use current ratings.