BRE vs MCI
Brentford (home) vs Manchester City · model confidence 85% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
BRE win 27.2% fair 3.67
Draw 21.9% fair 4.56
MCI win 50.8% fair 1.97
Expected Goals
BRE
1.33
—
1.99
MCI
| Over 2.5 goals | 64.4% | fair 1.55 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 35.6% | fair 2.81 |
| Both teams to score | 63.5% | fair 1.58 |
Most Likely Scores
| BRE 1-1 MCI | 9.6% | |
| BRE 1-2 MCI | 9.5% | |
| BRE 0-1 MCI | 7.2% | |
| BRE 0-2 MCI | 7.2% | |
| BRE 2-1 MCI | 6.4% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.6 | 7.2 | 7.2 | 4.7 | 2.4 | 1.4 |
| 1 | 4.8 | 9.6 | 9.5 | 6.3 | 3.1 | 1.8 |
| 2 | 3.2 | 6.4 | 6.3 | 4.2 | 2.1 | 1.2 |
| 3 | 1.4 | 2.8 | 2.8 | 1.9 | 0.9 | 0.5 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.9 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.2 |
| 5+ | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
Rows: BRE goals · Columns: MCI goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).