BRE vs MCI
Brentford (home) vs Manchester City · model confidence 82%
Match Outcome
BRE win 26.2% fair 3.82
Draw 21.4% fair 4.67
MCI win 52.4% fair 1.91
Expected Goals
BRE
1.32
—
2.07
MCI
| Over 2.5 goals | 65.8% | fair 1.52 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 34.2% | fair 2.93 |
| Both teams to score | 64.0% | fair 1.56 |
Most Likely Scores
| BRE 1-2 MCI | 9.5% | |
| BRE 1-1 MCI | 9.2% | |
| BRE 0-2 MCI | 7.3% | |
| BRE 0-1 MCI | 7.0% | |
| BRE 1-3 MCI | 6.6% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.4 | 7.0 | 7.3 | 5.0 | 2.6 | 1.6 |
| 1 | 4.4 | 9.2 | 9.5 | 6.6 | 3.4 | 2.1 |
| 2 | 2.9 | 6.0 | 6.3 | 4.3 | 2.3 | 1.4 |
| 3 | 1.3 | 2.7 | 2.8 | 1.9 | 1.0 | 0.6 |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.9 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.2 |
| 5+ | 0.1 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
Rows: BRE goals · Columns: MCI goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).