Gameweek 15
Pregame model probabilities for every fixture. Played matches show the prediction made with ratings as they stood before kickoff — no hindsight.
| Date (UTC) | Match | Home | Draw | Away | Result | Model pick | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12-12 15:00 | ARS vs BOU | 71.5% | 16.5% | 12.0% | — | HOME | analysis → |
| 12-12 15:00 | BHA vs EVE | 51.5% | 23.4% | 25.1% | — | HOME | analysis → |
| 12-12 15:00 | COV vs AVL | 26.2% | 21.8% | 52.0% | — | AWAY | analysis → |
| 12-12 15:00 | CRY vs MUN | 42.3% | 24.6% | 33.2% | — | HOME | analysis → |
| 12-12 15:00 | FUL vs BRE | 41.4% | 23.9% | 34.6% | — | HOME | analysis → |
| 12-12 15:00 | HUL vs TOT | 29.1% | 22.1% | 48.7% | — | AWAY | analysis → |
| 12-12 15:00 | IPS vs NEW | 25.3% | 21.8% | 52.9% | — | AWAY | analysis → |
| 12-12 15:00 | LIV vs LEE | 67.5% | 17.7% | 14.8% | — | HOME | analysis → |
| 12-12 15:00 | MCI vs CHE | 55.5% | 20.8% | 23.6% | — | HOME | analysis → |
| 12-12 15:00 | SUN vs NFO | 36.6% | 25.9% | 37.5% | — | AWAY | analysis → |
Probabilities: home / draw / away, shrunk toward the league prior when rating confidence is low. "Analysis" links use current ratings, so for played matches they may differ slightly from the pregame numbers shown here.