Gameweek 15
Pregame model probabilities for every fixture. Played matches show the prediction made with ratings as they stood before kickoff — no hindsight.
| Date (UTC) | Match | Home | Draw | Away | Result | Model pick | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12-12 15:00 | FUL vs BRE | 38.6% | 25.3% | 36.1% | — | HOME | analysis → |
| 12-12 15:00 | IPS vs NEW | 28.5% | 22.7% | 48.8% | — | AWAY | analysis → |
| 12-12 15:00 | LIV vs LEE | 60.8% | 21.6% | 17.6% | — | HOME | analysis → |
| 12-12 17:30 | MCI vs CHE | 57.8% | 19.9% | 22.2% | — | HOME | analysis → |
| 12-13 14:00 | ARS vs BOU | 68.1% | 18.6% | 13.3% | — | HOME | analysis → |
| 12-13 14:00 | BHA vs EVE | 59.2% | 21.5% | 19.3% | — | HOME | analysis → |
| 12-13 14:00 | SUN vs NFO | 35.7% | 27.2% | 37.1% | — | AWAY | analysis → |
| 12-13 16:30 | COV vs AVL | 24.9% | 22.8% | 52.3% | — | AWAY | analysis → |
| 12-13 19:00 | CRY vs MUN | 40.8% | 24.4% | 34.8% | — | HOME | analysis → |
| 12-14 20:00 | HUL vs TOT | 29.8% | 24.2% | 46.0% | — | AWAY | analysis → |
Probabilities: home / draw / away, shrunk toward the league prior when rating confidence is low. "Analysis" for played matches shows the locked pregame model (same as Fixtures / Over 2.5 calibration); open fixtures use current ratings.