BHA vs EVE
Brighton & Hove Albion (home) vs Everton · model confidence 78%
Match Outcome
BHA win 48.8% fair 2.05
Draw 24.0% fair 4.16
EVE win 27.2% fair 3.68
Probabilities are shrunk toward the league prior because rating confidence is medium (limited sample / squad uncertainty). Raw model: 49.3% / 24.0% / 26.6%.
Expected Goals
BHA
1.69
—
1.18
EVE
| Over 2.5 goals | 54.7% | fair 1.83 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 45.3% | fair 2.21 |
| Both teams to score | 56.4% | fair 1.77 |
Most Likely Scores
| BHA 1-1 EVE | 11.3% | |
| BHA 1-0 EVE | 9.6% | |
| BHA 2-1 EVE | 9.6% | |
| BHA 2-0 EVE | 8.1% | |
| BHA 0-1 EVE | 6.7% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.7 | 6.7 | 3.9 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.6 | 11.3 | 6.7 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.1 | 9.6 | 5.6 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.6 | 5.4 | 3.2 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.9 | 2.3 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 0.9 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Rows: BHA goals · Columns: EVE goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).